Budget delays, electioneering threaten IMF’s 4.4% growth outlook’

Analysts have pointed out that the lack of progress in budgeting and election-related maneuvering pose significant threats to the optimistic adjustments in Nigeria's growth forecasts for 2026, as indicated by the International Monetary Fund last week.

The PUNCH has reported that the International Monetary Fund anticipates Nigeria's economy will expand by 4.4 percent by 2026, according to the January 2026 issue of its semiannual World Economic Outlook. The most recent report from the IMF asserted that Nigeria's growth is crucial for the overall development in sub-Saharan Africa, which is projected to improve to 4.6 percent in both 2026 and 2027.

"The growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026 and 2027, aided by stabilizing economic conditions and reforms in key nations," the report partially stated.

The IMF’s revised growth estimate of 4.4 percent for Nigeria in 2026 largely corresponds with Afrinvest’s forecast of 4.3 percent documented in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report.

Afrinvest's forecasts were based on what it deemed as continuous significant investments from the private sector in areas such as telecommunications (including 5G network investments by MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa), oil and gas (the Dangote refinery expansion and Tony Elumelu’s majority stake acquisition in SEPLAT), agriculture (KONIG Agriculture Ltd’s $42 million mid-term investment in Ondo State), and finance and insurance (recapitalization across the sector). Additionally, the prospects of carry-trade inflows, buoyed by Nigeria’s high yields, are anticipated to draw investment from foreign portfolio investors seeking returns from advanced economies, which will be instrumental to Nigeria’s economic story in 2026.

EnterpriseNGR, a professional organization focused on policy advocacy, also projected a growth rate of 4.49 percent, reflecting a comprehensive expansion in sectors such as services, agriculture, trade, and telecommunications.