Nigeria’s World Cup hopes rise after CAF adjusts qualification criteria

Nigeria's prospects for qualifying for the 2026 World Cup have received a significant enhancement as the Confederation of African Football (CAF) altered the qualification criteria following Eritrea's exit from the tournament.

Eritrea’s departure has created a notable disparity, leaving Group E comprised of just five teams rather than the usual six.

To ensure equity, CAF and FIFA are evaluating the possibility of excluding points gained against the team at the bottom of each group when assessing the best runners-up.

In a notice issued on March 14, 2025, and endorsed by the Director of Tournaments and Events at CAF, Samson Adamu, the organization clarified that if a group features less than five teams due to a withdrawal or disqualification, the results against the lowest-ranked or withdrawn teams will be disregarded when analyzing the performance of second-placed teams.

The modification, carried out in accordance with Article 11.5 of the FIFA World Cup 2026 preliminary competition guidelines, guarantees consistency in the selection of the four top second-place teams from Africa.

Should this suggested change be implemented, Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Madagascar, and Gabon may potentially have six points deducted each, altering the qualification standings significantly.

Conversely, Cameroon (-4 points) and Nigeria might elevate their positions in the rankings, enhancing their opportunities to qualify for the World Cup playoffs.

This adjustment could be vital for Nigeria, who currently finds themselves outside the leading spot after securing only two points from matches against the last-placed Zimbabwe.

With the introduction of the new regulation that disregards results against the teams ranked lowest, the Super Eagles’ chances for qualification have experienced a significant enhancement.

As they prepare for matches against Lesotho and Benin, Nigeria will seek to take advantage of the amended regulations, achieve important wins, and revitalize their quest to make a return to the international tournament after being absent from the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.